NCAA Fantasy Hockey Week 15: Weekly Awards and Trade Tips
And yet another way to work out who you should be buying!
Weekly Awards Which Usually Appear On Tuesday
I didn’t single out Mikyla Grant-Mentis for notice in my write-up on Tuesday, which was an oversight. Her 8.3 points score from last weekend is absolutely massive, the second-highest weekly points score by any player this season, second only to Loren Gabel’s 8.6 all the way back in week 5. It’s not only the only weekly score over 8 this season apart from Gabel’s, it’s the only weekly score over 7.5. Her score is boosted by the 1 point bonus for each of the two shorthanded goals that she scored (in a single game!), but even 6.3 would have won player of the week a lot of weeks this season. Grant-Mentis is a little-interviewed player but seems like she would have a lot of interesting stories to tell: a player of color, someone who chose to commit to Merrimack as part of its second intake before having a real sense of what the program would be, formerly second in scoring in the PHWL behind Daryl Watts who you may have heard of. Her father played for the West Indies national ball hockey team and for the Canadian ball hockey team and had his number retired by the Canadian ball hockey association (not that we’re into talking about male relatives at the Ice Garden, but we are into sharing cool facts). And she’s majoring in Criminology, which honestly couldn’t be more badass.
I’ve had the chance to see Grant-Mentis play in person a few times and, even when Merrimack was a less tough out than it is now, she was one of the players (along with Katelyn Rae) who changed the game when she was on the ice. And she’s not yet a senior. Worth watching next year.
On with the awards!
Most points: Mikyla Grant-Mentis (Merrimack, 8.3 points this week (WP), 20.7 points this season (SP)), from Emma Keenan (6.1 WP) and Megan Keller (6 WP)
Most overlooked (highest scoring player that no-one picked): Mikyla Grant-Mentis (Merrimack, 8.3 WP, 20.7 SP)
Biggest boost (highest scoring player that only one manager picked): Kali Flanagan (BC, 4.6 WP, 16.8 SP)
Biggest contribution (highest value of points this week * number of teams they’re on): Megan Keller (BC, 6 points * 11 picks = 66 total contribution)
Best Freshman: Maggie Connors (Princeton, 6 WP, 22.2 SP)
Best Sophomore: Elizabeth Giguère (Clarkson, 4 WP, 41.6 SP)
Best Junior: Mikyla Grant-Mentis (Merrimack, 8.3 WP, 20.7 SP)
Best Senior: Emma Keenan (Clarkson, 6.1 WP, 18.6 SP)
Best D: Emma Keenan (Clarkson, 6.1 WP, 18.6 SP)
Best F: Mikyla Grant-Mentis (Merrimack, 8.3 WP, 20.7 SP)
Best Goalie: Morgan Fisher (UConn, 4.45 WP, 25.35 SP)
Team of the week
Roster: Mikyla Grant-Mentis (Merrimack, F, 8.3), Emma Keenan (Clarkson, D, 6.1), Megan Keller (BC, D, 6), Maggie Connors (Princeton, F, 6), Rebecca Vanstone (Yale, F, 6), Sarah Fillier (Princeton, F, 5.8), Michaela Pejzlová (Clarkson, F, 5.7), Kali Flanagan (BC, D, 4.6), Morgan Fisher (UConn, G, 4.45), Claire Thompson (Princeton, D, 4.1), Maddy McArthur (BC, G, 4.05), Deziray De Sousa (BU, F, 4), Elizabeth Giguère (Clarkson, F, 4), Emma Seitz (Yale, D, 3.9), Andrea Brändli (OSU, G, 3.85)
McArthur let in eight goals over the weekend but still makes it on to the team of the week for the first time, in part because she got her first collegiate assist.
Trade tips and sheet updates
I’ve made yet another change to the sheet, adding a tab called “Last 10”. It turns out that the stats database site allows you to get the stats from a player or team’s last ten games. So as well as the points stats tab, which tells you points this season or points per game this season, you now have the Last 10 tab, which tells you points per game over the last ten games (which is the same as total points over the last ten games divided by ten, obviously) and sorts it by current points per game (in columns J-N), by projected points for the rest of the season (in columns Q-U), and by cost (in columns X-AB).
In all the blocks, goalies are highlighted in green and bold underlined. Additionally, in the cost block, I’ve highlighted the row containing each player whose projected rest-of-the-season points are higher than anyone who costs less than her. This means her rest-of-the-season points are also higher than anyone above her in the cost list until you get to the next highlighted player up. People who remember the week 3 post will remember that I did a similar thing for the Players by Cost block of the Value Stats tab. If you don’t, all you need to know is that if a player is highlighted then she represents exceptionally good value. Probably!
Good value goalies’ rows are highlighted in green; good value skaters’ rows are highlighted in orange.
Who does the tab recommend? Interestingly, the tab thinks Jesse Compher will do better than any of the Clarkson big three and is very hesitant about Maureen Murphy. It loves the Princeton kids, especially Sarah Fillier (Princeton, $39, 29.6 SP, 5.8 WP, 3 picks) and Maggie “Big Weekend” Connors (Princeton, $31.6, 22.2 SP, 6 WP, 0 picks) — it makes intuitive sense that Connors might have a better second half of the season than first half, as a freshman getting a sense of the NCAA.
Projected underperformers among the most expensive skaters include:
- Daryl Watts (BC, $54.6, 23 SP, 3.1 WP, 11 picks), projected points 9.79
- Makenna Newkirk (BC, $48.1, 21.9 SP, -0.3 WP, 7 picks), project points 8.14
- Caitrin Lonergan (BC, $45.4, 16.3 SP, -0.2 WP, 6 picks), projected points 4.29
- Ella Shelton (Clarkson, $44.8, 24.8 SP, 2.1 WP, 5 picks), projected points 8.04
- T.T. Cianfarano (Clarkson, $39.4, 23.2 SP, 2.7 WP, 11 picks), projected points 8.76
- Olivia Zafuto (Colgate, $38.3, 18.7 SP, 3.3 WP, 2 picks), projected points 8.28
- Kristin O’Neill (Cornell, $37.3, 16.1 SP, 1.3 WP, 2 picks), projected points 9
- Cayla Barnes (BC, $36.5, 18.7 SP, 0.5 WP, 4 picks), projected points 5.06/
Have a look and see if you have any of these. It’s remarkable that Newkirk and Lonergan both managed negative points in a weekend where BC scored eight goals.
On the goalie side, obviously the tab loves Lindsay Reed and the fact that Harvard have more games remaining than anyone else. Keep an eye, though, on UNH goalie Kyra Smith (UNH, $23.6, 21.7 SP, 2.35 WP, 0 picks), who has started every game for quite some time. The tab projects that she’ll score 16 points in the rest of the regular season, better than 25 of the 26 goalies who cost more than her. Food for thought for anyone who missed the boat on Reed or Levy (and, in fact, the sheet likes Smith more than it likes Levy). The sheet may still be underrating Aerin Frankel: this weekend’s series against UConn will be a clue as to whether Northeastern are starting Frankel in every game down the home stretch, or splitting lower-pressure weekends between Frankel and Bugalski as they split every weekend in the first half of the season.
What’s happening this weekend?
All games are in-conference for the first time this year. And really only one game with super high stakes.
- 2x Wisconsin v Minnesota (KRACH: 0.551 chance of Wisconsin winning, i.e. a split is the most likely outcome): My most confident prediction is that there will be no more than five goals total in either game. Which is weird, given that neither of these teams have elite goaltending. My prediction for highest point scorer in this series is [CREATES DIVERSION, RUNS AWAY]./
Probably close games:
- ECAC: Rensselaer home-and-home with Union: 0.846 RPI. RPI can’t score. They have three goals in only two games this season, and in one of those the goal was scored in overtime and in the other it was in literally the last second of regulation. They’ll win but this can’t possibly be a blowout.
- Hockey East: Maine @ Merrimack: 0.527 Maine. I disagree with KRACH here, I think this is Merrimack’s to lose. I wouldn’t bet on a big score, but Grant-Mentis has shown how dangerous Merrimack’s top forwards can be.
- WCHA: Minnesota State @ St. Cloud State: 0.682 MSU, Minnesota State @ Bemidji State: 0.564 MSU: Minnesota State have had a rough couple of weeks. They now have five games in a row against the worst of the WCHA to steady the ship./
Maybe close games:
- CHA: 2x Penn State v Lindenwood: 0.802 Penn State. Honestly, I don’t think Penn State have been .8 to win any game this season, seeing how they take down big guns and then fall over their feet inside the CHA. This is their first meeting this season with Lindenwood, who will be flush with confidence following their victory over mighty Post.
- ECAC: St. Lawrence v Yale: 0.717 SLU. Can St. Lawrence really be taken down by Yale’s sometimes explosive, sometimes absent offense? Anything can happen when you’re St. Lawrence! Smart money has to be on a 2-1 St. Lawrence win but there’s a big-enough-to-be-exciting chance of Yale winning 8-3 or something.
Cornell @ Harvard: 0.802; Colgate @ Harvard: 0.782. Can Lindsay Reed work miracles again? Last time these teams met Harvard managed two one-goal losses. Both the C-teams could turn on the style, or Colgate’s goaltending could vanish. Possible high scoring weekend (again) for Reed.
- Hockey East: Northeastern home-and-home with Connecticut: 0.814. Providence v New Hampshire: 0.757. These should be blowouts for the favorite, but (a) Providence are in a bit of a slump at the moment and Kyra Smith is on a tear for UNH; (b) SNODGRASS. If Chloe Aurard is still out Northeastern might find these harder work than they anticipate.
- WCHA: 2x Ohio State @ Minnesota Duluth: 0.681 OSU. I think KRACH is underrating OSU here. They beat UMD 3-1 and 4-1 earlier this season. Maybe a chance to get back into Emma Maltais, so long as you get back out before they play Minnesota the following weekend./
Probably not close games:
- CHA: Mercyhurst @ RIT: 0.812. Robert Morris @ Syracuse: 0.765. Sorry RIT, sorry Syracuse. If Mercyhurst keep up their scoring pace that they found against Colgate, it might be worth having another look at Emma Nuutinen.
- ECAC: Cornell @ Dartmouth: 0.921, Colgate @ Dartmouth: 0.911, Clarkson v Brown: 0.905, Clarkson v Yale: 0.875; St. Lawrence v Brown: 0.776. Yeah, I know what happened last time Clarkson played Yale. That would only happen again if Clarkson were St. Lawrence. I would load up on Clarkson forwards if you have the option. Also, sorry Brown.
- Hockey East: Boston University home-and-home with Holy Cross: 0.94, Boston College @ Vermont: 0.741. Holy Cross and Vermont have both had encouraging games recently but these should all be goal bonanzas against them./
Not playing: Only Princeton, who weirdly have two weekends off before they play Penn State midweek as an appetizer for their first meeting against Clarkson on Feb. 2.
Trades to tigFantasyHockey@gmail.com by 11:59 pm Eastern on Thursday January 17th, please! Costs are on the cost tab of the spreadsheet.