Guess who's back? Three numbers that indicate Grace Zumwinkle is poised for a resurgence

Grace Zumwinkle took the PWHL by storm in 2024. In her rookie year, Zumwinkle tallied 11 goals, second most in the league. She also led the Minnesota Frost with 19 points on her way to winning rookie of the year. When you watch Zumwinkle, it’s not hard to see how she scores so many goals. She is a powerful skater with great speed and skill to create space to deliver her rocket of a shot. However, Zumwinkle’s second PWHL campaign was noticeably quieter than her first. She only managed 4 goals and 10 points in 22 games. The stark contrast in production begs the obvious question; which Grace Zumwinkle can the Frost expect in 2025-2026?

Here are three numbers that defined Grace Zumwinkle’s sophomore slump but also provide cause for optimism heading into 2025-2026:

-5.37

During her dynamite rookie year, Grace Zumwinkle shot the puck a ton. She produced on average almost 13 shots every 60 minutes she was on the ice. Her 12.99 shots/60 was good for second in the league. In her second year, her shooting volume dropped considerably. Zumwinkle managed only 7.62 shots/60, which represents a decrease of 5.37 shots/60 across the two campaigns.

8.2%

Not only did Zumwinkle shoot the puck often in her rookie year, she was quite successful when she did. She boasted an 11.2% shooting percentage, meaning 11.2% of her shots on net went in. This number was well above the league average of 7.8%. During her sophomore campaign, Zumwinkle’s shooting percentage dropped to 8.2%, which was below the league average of 8.7%. Simply put, in her second year, Zumwinkle was shooting the puck less often, and she was less successful scoring goals when she did shoot. 

8

When any player struggles, an injury is usually a good place to look for an explanation. Zumwinkle missed 8 games in January with what was described as an upper body injury (at the time of her injury, she led the Frost with three goals in six games). She returned to the lineup in early February, but the lingering effects of the injury could be a significant aspect of the drop in shooting volume and success. Prior to the injury, Zumwinkle had 17 shots in her first six games, good for 8.42 shots/60. Her three goals on those 17 shots gave her a 17.6% shooting percentage. Now, 17 shots is a very small sample size, and there is luck involved with shooting percentage. Even for a great shooter like Zumwinkle a 17.6% shooting percentage is not sustainable. However, her success early in the season indicates that when healthy last year, Zumwinkle was performing better than her full-season totals would indicate.

What does this all mean going forward? Without more specific details about the injury, it’s impossible to say definitively how it impacted Zumwinkle’s sophomore campaign. What the numbers show, and the eye test corroborates, is that Zumwinkle has been one of the best goal scorers in the league when healthy, and a far less effective shooter after her injury last January. With the losses of depth scorers Michela Cava and Brooke McQuigge in the offseason, Zumwinkle should get plenty of opportunities to shoot the puck, and the Frost will need her back to her goal-scoring best. All signs indicate Zumwinkle is healthy heading into camp, and if so, don’t be surprised when she returns to being one of the best goal scorers in the league.