Cloudy with a Chance of Knight-ning: Predictions for the Debut of PWHL Seattle

As the air gets crisp and the days get short, anticipation for the upcoming PWHL season keeps us going. And out here on the west coast, we’re especially excited for Vancouver and Seattle expansion teams to make their debuts. But with opening weekend still two months away, we’ll scratch that itch by making predictions on what PWHL Seattle has in store.

The following analyses and discussions are based on the roster of players signed to PWHL Seattle as of September 28, 2025.

Prediction #1: Who will score the first goal in franchise history?

Data says: Hilary Knight. Considering player stats from the previous two regular seasons (in the PWHL and NCAA, as applicable), there’s no surprise here – Knight has recorded at least one goal in 17 of 54 games played. Of these, she scored first for her team in 11 of them, giving her a 20.4% chance of scoring her team’s first goal in any given game. Jessie Eldridge is another likely option with a 14.8% chance.

For 2024/25 rookies, an individual correction factor based on relative point production (points per game in PWHL 2024/25 season, divided by points per game in NCAA 2023/24 season) was applied to their NCAA stats in this calculation, to adjust for the elevated caliber of the PWHL. An average of these correction factors was applied to NCAA stats for 2025/26 rookies, as their relative PWHL performance has yet to be determined.

Confidence: 5/5

Rebecca says: Cayla Barnes. This might be a hot take, but for this Californian, playing back on the west coast and reuniting with Hannah Bilka and Jenna Buglioni (from their 2024 championship-winning Ohio State team) could add an edge to her game. And defensemen just need some love.

Confidence: 3/5

Prediction #2: How many games will it take to score a jailbreak goal?

Data says: Based on the penalty-taking habits over the previous two seasons – while applying a similar correction factor to NCAA penalty minutes per game – the team is expected to average 3.1 minor penalties per game. (This analysis ignores major penalties, given their relative infrequency.)

Based on their shorthanded goal-scoring prowess, PWHL Seattle will score one shorthanded goal for approximately every 35 minor penalties. Therefore, at these rates, the first franchise jailbreak goal will be scored sometime in the team’s 12^th game. However, this analysis makes some significant assumptions, which weaken its credibility.

Confidence: 2/5

Rebecca says: In terms of rap sheets, goons like Emily “Bad Girl” Brown will be balanced by model citizens like Alex Carpenter. But most shorthanded goal-scoring experience over the last two seasons was accrued in college – 10 of 12 shorthanded-goals scored by PWHL Seattle players were with their NCAA teams. So, accounting for the elevated caliber and the general rarity of shorthanded goals, I actually agree that PWHL Seattle will need some time to find the finesse (and luck) to net a jailbreak goal – I say it’ll happen in the 10^th game.

Confidence: 4/5

Prediction #3: What will be the weather in Seattle on the first home game day?

Data says: Using average temperature data in Seattle since 1975, on the expected dates of this year’s PWHL season openers (November 21-23), a linear regression model forecasts a chilly 45.2°F (7.3°C). This assumes that PWHL Seattle starts the season with a home game.

Next, a k-nearest neighbors classification model was trained on local weather data from the first franchise home games for original PWHL teams and current Seattle-based professional sports teams. The algorithm considers both seasonal patterns and geographical distance from the Seattle climate (see diagram below). Defining weather categories as sunny, cloudy (with no precipitation), rainy, or snowy, this analysis predicts that it will be a cloudy day. While this is a reasonable outcome, it should be taken with a grain of salt, as the model is not terribly robust.

Confidence: 4/5

Rebecca says: I’m no meteorologist, but as a Pacific Northwest native, I’m confident that it’ll be raining in November.

Confidence: 5/5

Prediction #4: What will the goal song be?

Data says: This depends on the identity that the team and fanbase establish for themselves. They could go with a recognizable hype song, like the Seattle Storm with “Thunderstruck” by AC/DC. But reading the trends and given the wealth of homegrown music talent, as well as the lack of team branding so far, they’ll probably keep it local, like the Seattle Kraken with “Lithium” by Nirvana.

Confidence: 4/5

Rebecca says: The Seattle area is a gold mine for music, so I agree that they’ll lean into this. My top predictions are “Can’t Hold Us” by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis and “Even Flow” by Pearl Jam.

Confidence: 3/5

What ultimately unfolds for PWHL Seattle will be influenced by many factors, including the schedule, roster, and any new rules the league rolls out. But until the players don emerald and cream, we can deep dive into hypotheticals, hunches, and hardcore grunge to pass the time.

Data Sources

• Seattle temperatures: National Weather Service
• Historical weather: Weather Spark
• PWHL statistics: PWHL, Elite Prospects
• NCAA statistics: Colgate University, Northeastern University, Ohio State University, St. Lawrence University, University of Wisconsin