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NCAA Fantasy Hockey Week 5: Trade Tips

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With the Four Nations approaching, there are some tactical decisions to be made

Standings update

The last two games of the week, UConn at Brown and Syracuse at Cornell, had a surprisingly large effect on the standings. In particular, Team Watts Up! goes up another four places thanks to judicious choices of Natalie Snodgrass (UConn, $36, 8.4 SP) and Micah Zandee-Hart (Cornell, $39.90, 1.1 SP). Rooney’s Mad Dogs, on the other hand, scored -0.9 points for Allie Munroe ($17.10, 2.7 SP, 2 PIM and -5 plus/minus this weekend) and as a result dropped four places in the standings — it’s pretty close in there. Full end-of-week standings are preserved forever here.

Parity not clarity

Two goals in the last 17 seconds of the game gave Brown a 5-3 victory over Connecticut, setting Brown off to a 3-0-0 start: for perspective, the last time Brown went 3-0-0 to start a season was 2000-2001. Those three victories? Minnesota 3-2; Wisconsin 5-3; BC 7-0. And then a loss to Dartmouth! Times change. If you count all opponents, the only seasons Brown has had a better start than this year’s 3-0-0 are 92-93 (8-0-0), 90-91 (6-0-0), and 1976-77(!) (5-0-0). We’ll see how they do against Quinnipiac this weekend.

We also have a new high scorer of the week, Lizzy Gross from Brown; a new most overlooked player of the week, Lizzy Gross from Brown; a new best freshman, Lizzy Gross from Brown; and a new best forward, Lizzy Gross from Brown. ($19.60, 6.2 SP, since you ask). The team of the week now features three players from Brown, which is not a sentence I ever thought I’d type, and would have featured more if not for the three-players-per-school limit. (The Brown players are: Lizzy Gross (Brown, F, $19.60, 6.2), Shay Maloney (Brown, F, $17.60, 4.2), Kaitijane Blumberg (Brown, F, $14.20, 4)).

Not OK, computer

Brown’s season total of 12 goals for and 4 against, as well as the 4-1 victory by Cornell over Syracuse and the heroic stand (and assist scored) by Princeton’s goalie Rachel McQuigge ($4.50, 3.95 SP) against Wisconsin, have completely messed up all my points per game metrics. Of the top ten scorers in terms of points per game, three are from Cornell, one is from Brown, one is McQuigge who may not even be the starter for most of the season, and two are goalies who are going to Four Nations and will miss two weekends starting the weekend after next. This means that points per game are much less useful in picking a trade this week than in other weeks.

You may also remember that two weeks ago I set up a table on the Value Stats tab to let you work out who was scoring the most points at a given cost. This week Kendra Nealey from Cornell (I’ll save you the trouble of looking, she’s on row 287) scored so many points in one game that at a cost of $14.70 there are only two players the sheet thinks you should take ahead of her, even dividing by games-plus-1. (Those players: Maureen Murphy (Providence, $40.10, 2.46 PPG, 2.05 PPG+1) and Lizzy Gross (Brown, F, $19.60, 2.07 PPG, 1.55 PPG+1). As a result, it’s now basically impossible to use a computer to work out who you should trade for. Good luck on your own, humans!

Four Nations

Selected players will miss all games during the tournament (November 6-10). Additionally, the US players are called to a pre-tournament camp the previous week, meaning that US players will miss any game from 11/2 on. Canada and Finland have a pre-tournament game on Sunday 11/4, so you have to assume that any Canadian or Finnish players are at risk from 11/3 onwards. Sweden is requiring that players assemble in Saskatoon on 11/2.

The following NCAA players have been selected for the national teams for Four Nations:

  • Canada: Sarah Fillier (Princeton, $24.60, 1.2 SP); Emily Clark (Wisconsin, $42.30, 6.8 SP); Loren Gabel (Clarkson, $71.20, 10.3 SP); Sarah Potomak (Minnesota, $37.90, 6.3 SP); Jaime Bourbonnais (Cornell, $28.50, 0 SP); Micah Zandee-Hart (Cornell, $40, 0 SP)
  • Finland: Not published yet. Probably Emma Nuutinen (Mercyhurst, $11.90, 3 SP)?
  • Sweden: Lovisa Selander (RPI, $43, 9 SP); Emma Söderberg (UMD backup goalie, $11.50, 0 SP); Jessica Adolfsson (Penn State, $14.60, 2.9 SP); Sara Hjalmarsson (Providence, $20.20, 7.2 SP); Celine Tedenby (Maine, $15.20, 2.6 SP)
  • USA: Cayla Barnes (Boston College, $43.50, 6.8 SP); Sydney Brodt (Minnesota-Duluth, $20, 6 SP); Kali Flanagan (Boston College, $39, 2.3 SP); Caitrin Lonergan (Boston College, $65.30, 5.2 SP); Megan Keller (Boston College, $44.40, 7.7 SP); Annie Pankowski (Wisconsin, $40.90, 9.3 SP); Kelly Pannek (Minnesota, $42, 6.5 SP); Emma Polusny (St. Cloud, $30.20, 6.4 SP); Melissa Samoskevich (Quinnipiac, $21.90, 0.9 SP)

Of the teams affected, here are their games over those two weekends:

  • BC (Barnes, Flanagan, Lonergan, Keller): 11/3 @ Providence
  • Clarkson (Gabel): 11/2 v Union, 11/3 v RPI
  • Cornell (Bourbonnais, Zandee-Hart): 11/2 @ Yale, 11/3 @ Brown, 11/10 and 11/11 @ Mercyhurst
  • Maine (Tedenby): 11/2 v Merrimack, 11/4 v Holy Cross, 11/9 @ Providence, 11/10 @ Connecticut
  • Minnesota (Pannek, Potomak): 11/2 and 11/3 v Bemidji
  • Minnesota-Duluth (Brodt, Rooney, Söderberg): 11/3 v the Whitecaps
  • Penn State (Adolfsson): 11/3 and 11/4 v Syracuse
  • Princeton (Fillier): 11/2 v Dartmouth, 11/3 v Harvard, 11/10 and 11/1 @ Syracuse
  • Providence (Hjalmarsson): 11/3 v BC, 11/9 v Maine, 11/11 @ Vermont
  • Quinnipiac (Samoskevich): 11/2 v Harvard, 11/3 v Dartmouth
  • RPI (Selander): 11/2 @ St. Lawrence, 11/3 @ Clarkson, 11/9 v Brown, 11/10 v Yale
  • St Cloud (Polusny): 11/2 and 11/3 @ Ohio State; 11/9 and 11/10 @ Lindenwood
  • Wisconsin (Clark, Pankowski): 11/2 and 11/3 @ Minnesota State

(I can’t help feel a bit sorry for UMD backup goalie Söderberg, who must have thought that with Rooney picked for the US team she had a chance to play that UMD exhibition, and will instead spend that weekend as... backup goalie for the Swedish national team).

Looking at players who managers have picked, these are significant numbers of missed potential points for Selander and Fillier, and moderate numbers of missed potential points for Gabel, Bourbonnais, Pannek, Potomak, Samoskevich, Polusny, Clark and Pankowski. It might be worth considering renting someone else for those two weekends if you have one of those players. Holding onto one of the other players, for example Rooney or one of the BC players, won’t cost you because they’ll make up the games elsewhere in the season, but obviously they won’t be earning you points for these two weekends, so a rental might be no harm.

So how well did the selectors do? Leaving aside the Ivy players who’ve only played one game, the US and Canadian selectors have chosen 11 skaters and 1 goalie. Multiplying the total skater score by 12/11 and the total goalie score by 3, that means the US and Canadian selectors would have scored 94.8 points in this league, which would put them in 21st place. In contrast, The House of Seven Gabels has scored 139.85 points, and it’s a house.

Missing in action

There are about 54 players from the start-of-year roster who haven’t played a game yet. Here are the ones who’ve been picked, plus other noteworthy missing players.

  • Harvard: Beth Larcom ($32.60, 0 SP) didn’t play against Dartmouth, but that might just be being a goalie. Val Turgeon ($12.20, 0 SP) doesn’t seem to have played.
  • Minnesota: Taylor Wente ($22.90, 3.2 SP) hasn’t played for the last three games. Madeleine Wethington (n/a) is still in high school but still on one fantasy team.
  • Princeton: Steph Neatby ($32.10, 0 SP) didn’t play either game in the Wisconsin series, which is very surprising if she’s healthy. I don’t have any information about her.
  • Wisconsin: Emily Clark ($42.30, 6.8 SP) is still out.

Top performers

The top ten scorers in terms of total points this year, leaving points per game out of it for now because of #IvyEnvy, are:

  • Maddie Rooney (G, Minnesota-Duluth, $45.6, 14.7 SP)
  • Ella Shelton (Clarkson, $49.9, 13 SP)
  • Abby Roque (Wisconsin, $41.1, 12.9 SP)
  • Maureen Murphy (Providence, $40.1, 12.3 SP)
  • Emma Maltais (OSU, $43, 12.1 SP)
  • Nicole Schammel (Minnesota, $36.9, 11.3 SP)
  • Patti Marshall (Minnesota, $31.5, 11.1 SP)
  • Samantha Ridgewell (G, Merrimack, $35.5, 11 SP)
  • Jaycee Gebhard (Robert Morris, $37.8, 10.4 SP)
  • Kassidy Sauvé (G Clarkson, $56.1, 10.35 SP)

Big games and series this weekend (for the whole schedule, see the Comp Schedule tab on the spreadsheet or Collegehockeystats’ upcoming games page):

  • Even battles: Minnesota at Wisconsin is the clear main event, but Ohio State at St. Lawrence, Penn State at Mercyhurst and the single game Providence at Northeastern should all be up-tempo, exciting games. Lower down the rankings, RIT at RPI is a good matchup between two not-that-good teams with a few very good players — Cornine and Lanteigne for RIT, Selander for RPI. Minnesota State at Bemidji might be the opportunity for Minnesota State to finally establish itself as better this year.
  • Possible point bonanzas: Clarkson v Syracuse twice is an interesting comparison with Cornell v Syracuse last weekend, and also of course a good opportunity for Clarkson to score all of the goals. Princeton v Yale and then Brown is a chance to see Princeton against much weaker competition than Wisconsin and get a sense of whether the four and a half periods of good aggression Princeton played in that series will carry over to the rest of the season. If BC at Holy Cross isn’t a blowout then something’s seriously wrong. Finally, Minnesota Duluth’s two against St Cloud are another chance to get UMD’s inconsistent offense going again.

Trade wisely! Costs are on column K of the Costs tab. Trades to tigFantasyHockey@gmail.com by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday October 25th please.